Aluminum consumption series - How much aluminum is used in photovoltaics?
July 16, 2024
Aluminum used in photovoltaics is mainly concentrated in photovoltaic frames and photovoltaic brackets. Photovoltaic frames and brackets mainly play the role of fixing and sealing components, enhancing component strength, and facilitating transportation and installation.
Aluminum frames account for an absolute share of about 95% in photovoltaic frames. According to different sizes and component types, the aluminum consumption of single GW component frames is 4,500-5,000 tons. It is expected that by 2025, the total weight of aluminum frames per GW of all types of p-type components will decrease by about 1%, and the total weight of aluminum frames per GW of all types of n-type components will decrease by about 3%.
Aluminum alloy brackets are generally used in distributed photovoltaics. Because aluminum alloy brackets are relatively expensive and have limited carrying capacity, they are basically not used in centralized photovoltaics. The consumption of aluminum alloy brackets per GW of distributed photovoltaics is about 16,000 tons.
Chinese market: The era of high growth is coming to an end, and the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity has become stable. In recent years, my country's new photovoltaic installed capacity has achieved explosive growth, but my country's distributed and centralized consumption are facing great challenges. In the future, my country's new photovoltaic installed capacity will transition from explosive growth to steady development. It is estimated that my country's new photovoltaic installed capacity will be between 240-260GW in 2024, and the average annual growth rate of my country's new photovoltaic installed capacity will be around 10% in the later period.
Global market: China's stock and new installed capacity remain absolutely leading, and the high-growth areas have switched. It is expected that the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity in India, Brazil, the Middle East and North Africa will be relatively high in the later period. In 2023, the global new installed capacity will be 420GW, an increase of 84% year-on-year. By 2024/2025, the global new installed capacity is expected to be 490/535GW, an increase of 17%/9% year-on-year.
With the reduction of unit aluminum consumption and the decline in the proportion of distributed power in major installed capacity countries such as China, the boost to aluminum demand from photovoltaic power is relatively weaker than the growth rate of installed capacity. In 2023/2024/2025, the global photovoltaic aluminum consumption will be 5.89/6.85/7.42 million tons, respectively, and the corresponding increments will be 2.46/9.6/5.7 million tons, respectively.
At present, most of the production capacity of the photovoltaic industry chain is located in China. However, due to the policy suppression of China's photovoltaic industry by the United States and other countries, the overseas layout of photovoltaic production capacity has become more and more obvious. The global share of China's module and aluminum frame production capacity has declined, which will weaken the growth rate of China's photovoltaic aluminum consumption to a certain extent. In 2023/2024/2025, China's photovoltaic aluminum consumption will be 4.89 million/5.55 million/5.94 million tons, respectively, and the corresponding increments will be 1.77 million/660 thousand/390 thousand tons, respectively.
