According to Yuefeng Aluminum data show that as of August 2024, the weighted average full cost of China's alumina industry is 2845 yuan/ton, up about 8 yuan/ton from the previous month. In August, the price of domestic alumina raw materials rose and fell, and the overall production cost did not change significantly, and the industry maintained a high profit situation. Specifically:
First, in terms of bauxite, domestic bauxite prices remained high this week. In addition, it is understood that the rainfall in Guinea's rainy season is higher than the same period last year, the port and loading efficiency of mining enterprises are declining, while the volume of shipments is reduced, resulting in a tighter supply of bulk cargo, and short-term prices are still likely to rise. Second, caustic soda, the North China market as a whole increased this month, in terms of the main producing areas in Shandong, the overall inventory of low-grade alkali is not high, some high-price enterprises in Shandong, high-price shipment is not smooth, different degrees of reduction, pulling down the average price of 32 alkali in Shandong, but with the increase in the price of 32 alkali in the main downstream procurement at the end of the month, the Shandong market as a whole moved up significantly. In addition, this month, the East China liquid alkali market price stabilized and then rose, the market price stabilized at the beginning of the month, and the real single fell; Subsequently, the price of liquid chlorine was continuously low, and the price was steadily increased in the middle and late of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui regions by the supply narrowing and some demand starting slightly. Third, in terms of coal, the price of coal this month was slightly weak. Most coal mines in the main producing areas maintain normal production, individual coal mines due to the completion of the monthly task, cut production or stop production, the market coal supply slightly contracted, the end of the coal mine quotes are mostly stable, individual coal mines according to the actual sales slightly adjusted 5-10 yuan/ton or so.
According to Yuefeng Aluminum statistics, the average profit of China's alumina industry in August 2024 was 1071.56 yuan/ton, up 1.77 yuan/ton from the previous month. This month, the spot price trend was stable and then rose, and the industry maintained a high profit situation. This month, the market is still in a parallel state of high supply and high demand, some alumina companies by raw materials and equipment problems have increased the frequency of maintenance, some enterprises in the factory delivery is still tight, and even need to pick up spot to make up the long order, resulting in the buyer's sentiment is still strong, downstream just need to replenish the pressure on the acceptance of high spot passively increased.
Yuefeng Aluminum Forecast Analysis: In terms of ore, some domestic mines are still actively promoting the resumption of mining, but considering that the policy is still strictly controlled in terms of mining procedures, safety and environmental protection, the domestic ore supply shortage situation is limited to improve in September, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea in September is still in place, alumina companies' demand for ore in other countries is rising simultaneously, supporting ore prices. In terms of caustic soda, a total of 6 sets of caustic soda repairs were planned in September, with a total production capacity of about 1.53 million tons, and the repairs were mainly concentrated in Northwest and North China. In addition, the demand side of the favorable support is not obvious, the main producing area to send the main downstream 32 alkali increased, and there are 50 alkali supply supplement, the short-term is expected to be the main downstream procurement 32 alkali prices stable, the possibility of price increases reduced, and other traditional downstream demand performance is general. In terms of coal, it will take some time for the domestic high temperature to subside in September. In a short period of time, the overall daily consumption of terminal power plants is obviously high. After the early destocking, some power plants need to tikka and improve the coal type structure, and the demand for replenishment of storage may be released. Superimposed "gold nine silver ten" traditional peak season arrival, building materials, cement end demand will increase, but hydropower and scenery have an impact on coal demand, and a large influx of imported coal will disturb domestic coal prices to a certain extent, dragging down the rebound time and height of coal prices. In the later stage, it is necessary to focus on the marginal recovery of the operating rate of non-electricity industries such as building materials and chemicals, the actual storage of the terminal and the auxiliary output of new energy.
